Quantifying methane emissions from United States landfills.

Methane emissions from solid waste may represent a substantial fraction of the global anthropogenic budget, but few comprehensive studies exist to assess inventory assumptions. We quantified emissions at hundreds of large landfills across 18 states in the United States between 2016 and 2022 using airborne imaging spectrometers. Spanning 20% of open United States landfills, this represents the most systematic measurement-based study of methane point sources of the waste sector. We detected significant point source emissions at a majority (52%) of these sites, many with emissions persisting over multiple revisits (weeks to years). We compared these against independent contemporaneous in situ airborne observations at 15 landfills and established good agreement. Our findings indicate a need for long-term, synoptic-scale monitoring of landfill emissions in the context of climate change mitigation policy.

Strong methane point sources contribute a disproportionate fraction of total emissions across multiple basins in the United States.

Understanding, prioritizing, and mitigating methane (CH4) emissions requires quantifying CH4 budgets from facility scales to regional scales with the ability to differentiate between source sectors. We deployed a tiered observing system for multiple basins in the United States (San Joaquin Valley, Uinta, Denver-Julesburg, Permian, Marcellus). We quantify strong point source emissions (>10 kg CH4 h-1) using airborne imaging spectrometers, attribute them to sectors, and assess their intermittency with multiple revisits. We compare these point source emissions to total basin CH4 fluxes derived from inversion of Sentinel-5p satellite CH4 observations. Across basins, point sources make up on average 40% of the regional flux. We sampled some basins several times across multiple months and years and find a distinct bimodal structure to emission timescales: the total point source budget is split nearly in half by short-lasting and long-lasting emission events. With the increasing airborne and satellite observing capabilities planned for the near future, tiered observing systems will more fully quantify and attribute CH4 emissions from facility to regional scales, which is needed to effectively and efficiently reduce methane emissions.

Mapped coral mortality and refugia in an archipelago-scale marine heat wave.

Corals are a major habitat-building life-form on tropical reefs that support a quarter of all species in the ocean and provide ecosystem services to millions of people. Marine heat waves continue to threaten and shape reef ecosystems by killing individual coral colonies and reducing their diversity. However, marine heat waves are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, and so too are the environmental and biological factors mediating coral resilience during and following thermal events. This combination results in highly variable outcomes at both the coral bleaching and mortality stages of every event. This, in turn, impedes the assessment of changing reef-scale patterns of thermal tolerance or places of resistance known as reef refugia. We developed a large-scale, high-resolution coral mortality monitoring capability based on airborne imaging spectroscopy and applied it to a major marine heat wave in the Hawaiian Islands. While water depth and thermal stress strongly mediated coral mortality, relative coral loss was also inversely correlated with preheat-wave coral cover, suggesting the existence of coral refugia. Subsequent mapping analyses indicated that potential reef refugia underwent up to 40% lower coral mortality compared with neighboring reefs, despite similar thermal stress. A combination of human and environmental factors, particularly coastal development and sedimentation levels, differentiated resilient reefs from other more vulnerable reefs. Our findings highlight the role that coral mortality mapping, rather than bleaching monitoring, can play for targeted conservation that protects more surviving corals in our changing climate.

Large-scale mapping of live corals to guide reef conservation.

Coral is the life-form that underpins the habitat of most tropical reef ecosystems, thereby supporting biological diversity throughout the marine realm. Coral reefs are undergoing rapid change from ocean warming and nearshore human activities, compromising a myriad of services provided to societies including coastal protection, fishing, and cultural practices. In the face of these challenges, large-scale operational mapping of live coral cover within and across reef ecosystems could provide more opportunities to address reef protection, resilience, and restoration at broad management- and policy-relevant scales. We developed an airborne mapping approach combining laser-guided imaging spectroscopy and deep learning models to quantify, at a large archipelago scale, the geographic distribution of live corals to 16-m water depth throughout the main Hawaiian islands. Airborne estimates of live coral cover were highly correlated with field-based estimates of live coral cover (R2 = 0.94). Our maps were used to assess the relative condition of reefs based on live coral, and to identify potential coral refugia in the face of human-driven stressors, including marine heat waves. Geospatial modeling revealed that water depth, wave power, and nearshore development accounted for the majority (>60%) of live coral cover variation, but other human-driven factors were also important. Mapped interisland and intraisland variation in live coral location improves our understanding of reef geography and its human impacts, thereby guiding environmental management for reef resiliency.

Using spatially explicit, time-dependent analysis to understand how social factors influence conservation outcomes.

Conservation across human-dominated landscapes requires an understanding of the social and ecological factors driving outcomes. Studies that link conservation outcomes to social and ecological factors have examined temporally static patterns. However, there may be different social and ecological processes driving increases and decreases in conservation outcomes that can only be revealed through temporal analyses. Through a case study of the invasion of Falcataria moluccana in Hawaii, we examined the association of social factors with increases and decreases in invader distributions over time and space. Over 7 years, rates of invader decrease varied substantially (66-100%) relative to social factors, such as building value, whether land was privately or publically owned, and primary residence by a homeowner, whereas rates of increase varied only slightly (<0.1-3.6%) relative to such factors. These findings suggest that links between social factors and invasion in the study system may be driven more by landowners controlling existing invasive species, rather than by landowners preventing the spread of invasive species. We suggest that spatially explicit, time-dependent analyses provide a more nuanced understanding of the way social factors influence conservation outcomes. Such an understanding can help managers develop outreach programs and policies targeted at different types of landowners in human-dominated landscapes.

Uso de un Análisis Espacialmente Explícito y Dependiente del Tiempo para Entender cómo Influyen los Factores Sociales sobre los Resultados de la Conservación Resumen La conservación dentro de los paisajes dominados por humanos requiere de un entendimiento de los factores sociales y ecológicos que afectan los resultados. Los estudios que conectan los resultados de la conservación con los factores sociales y ecológicos han examinado temporalmente los patrones estáticos. Sin embargo, puede haber diferentes procesos sociales y ecológicos que produzcan un incremento o una disminución en los resultados de la conservación, los cuales sólo pueden ser revelados por medio de los análisis temporales. Examinamos la asociación entre los factores sociales y el incremento y la disminución de la distribución de una invasión en el tiempo y el espacio con el estudio de caso de la invasión de Falcataria moluccana en Hawái. A lo largo de siete años las tasas de disminución de la invasión variaron considerablemente (66-100%) en relación con los factores sociales, como el valor de construcción, si la tierra era pública o privada, y si era la residencia principal del propietario, mientras que las tasas de incremento variaron solamente un poco (<0.1-3.6%) en relación con dichos factores. Estos hallazgos sugieren que las conexiones entre los factores sociales y la invasión en el sistema de estudio podrían ser causados más por los propietarios que controlan a las especies invasoras existentes en lugar de ser causados por los propietarios que previenen la expansión de las especies invasoras. Sugerimos que los análisis espacialmente explícitos y dependientes del tiempo proporcionan un entendimiento más matizado de cómo los factores sociales influyen sobre los resultados de la conservación. Dicho entendimiento puede ayudar a los administradores a desarrollar programas y políticas de compromiso con la comunidad enfocadas en diferentes tipos de propietarios en los paisajes dominados por el humano.